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| Nico Omer Jonckheere is Vice President of Research & Analysis at Valbury Asia Futures and Valbury Asia Securities |
18.00-Finished
Venue: Grand Aston, Cypress Room
Jln. Balai Kota No.1 Medan 20112
Recently I was attending a futures gathering party that present Mr Nico Omer Jonckheere as the speaker, it was quite a nice presentation as the speaker gives us his point of view about what is happening in the financial world nowadays, and gives us the knowledge that we very much needed in this kind of volatile yet confusing market.
The speaker had done a very great job on presenting his ideas.
These are the summary of the presentation:
Time to Buy or ... ?
Volatility will still be high for these one or two years, but high volatility will offer much opportunity, the thing that we can do is to adapt with this situation
The world has 3 Economic Powerhouse, which is: America, Europe, and China. While America and Europe are having trouble from their financial system, China are having trouble from economic overheat,and it's property market. And it is very dangerous to the world economy at large.
Every now and then, things might be seems good, government and central banks from these country might release encouraging statements, but investor now have to be critical and skeptical, don't follow the euphoria,as things might collide down once again
These are the trouble that surrounding these 3 country:
Europe
Thing will blow up !
Greece will default.. Eventually, the bailout funds -no matter how large they grow- will merely slow the march toward inevitability. The destination is certain; the timetable is variable
Now the question is not "Will Greece face bankruptcy ?" The real question is "When"
Domino effect
There will be a time when France and German will finally say "enough is enough" and when the time comes, the domino effect of the European financial crisis is inevitable
Venue: Grand Aston, Cypress Room
Jln. Balai Kota No.1 Medan 20112
Recently I was attending a futures gathering party that present Mr Nico Omer Jonckheere as the speaker, it was quite a nice presentation as the speaker gives us his point of view about what is happening in the financial world nowadays, and gives us the knowledge that we very much needed in this kind of volatile yet confusing market.
The speaker had done a very great job on presenting his ideas.
These are the summary of the presentation:
Time to Buy or ... ?
Volatility will still be high for these one or two years, but high volatility will offer much opportunity, the thing that we can do is to adapt with this situation
The world has 3 Economic Powerhouse, which is: America, Europe, and China. While America and Europe are having trouble from their financial system, China are having trouble from economic overheat,and it's property market. And it is very dangerous to the world economy at large.
Every now and then, things might be seems good, government and central banks from these country might release encouraging statements, but investor now have to be critical and skeptical, don't follow the euphoria,as things might collide down once again
These are the trouble that surrounding these 3 country:
Europe
Thing will blow up !
Greece will default.. Eventually, the bailout funds -no matter how large they grow- will merely slow the march toward inevitability. The destination is certain; the timetable is variable
Now the question is not "Will Greece face bankruptcy ?" The real question is "When"
Domino effect
There will be a time when France and German will finally say "enough is enough" and when the time comes, the domino effect of the European financial crisis is inevitable
Candidate for bankruptcy:
- Greece
- Portugal
- Ireland
- Spain
- Italy
- Belgium
- France
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Sweden
- United States
United States
@2011, US Consumer Sentiment Index is declining, this index is usually a catalyst to US GDP, which means the GDP will soon follow to decline. Meanwhile, US National Debt is now at all time high, almost 15 Trillion USD, and doesn't show any sign of slowing down.
That means declining GDP and inclining Debt. This situation is very bad for US economy and create some very bad impacts, such as:
US are unable to pay off their debts
A default will crash the currency (USD)
Gold will going to be king again
Note:
Given the role the US Dollar plays as the world's reserve currency, the dismal shape of the US monetary system spells trouble for the global monetary system.
Some countries are swapping their reserve from USD to gold, China is the biggest buyer of gold this year, means that they have forecasted the impact of US and European Crisis
China
China is about to face stagflation, the situation of high inflation, and no growth.
The property market has been down around 50% MoM on several big cities in China. With the property stocks are still going up, yet the real property market has going down, the situation does not look very good.
China GDP has been averaging 10.27% per annum over the past decade, now Jim Chanos estimates Chinese GDP growth would take a 7.5% - 10% hit.
Stock Market
Things will get worse before it starting to get better
With problems surrounding these 3 economic powerhouse, a crash is inevitable. But the good thing is, a crash will accompanied by abundance of opportunities to buy cheap stocks, with one word that investors are looking forward to: QE3
QE3 will lift up stock market again, because with QE3, the will be a lot of liquidity pouring in the market
But government can not exercise the QE3 now because of the high inflation, they are waiting for something happen that lower the inflation-a crash (a crash will lower the inflation because all the assets price will collapse during the crash) to exercise the QE3, which is why the crash is a great opportunity for investor to buy cheap stocks
Emerging Market
Emerging Market will be the destination for funds and foreign investors for the next decade, with Indonesia and India as the favorite destination. It is because emerging market show a very steady growth, and the huge population in the countries that creates a huge domestic demand
So, things will likely to get worse before it starting to get better, as the fund redemption will have huge impact on emerging market. The good thing is, on real sector, emerging market only had a little impact on the crisis abroad. Emerging market is the place with great potential and very interesting growth and valuation that is very likely to be the investment destination again when things are settled down
That's the summary of the presentation, which I think is a great one, because it does enlighten me to see a market direction in this confusing market.
I hope this article can help you too, to see the market objectively. Oh yeah, the last word: Be Prepared ! :D
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